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The networks and systems which support our society are complex structures, but some contain a single vulnerable component whose failure would cause the entire system to collapse. Such a location is called a single point of failure. The potential shutdown of a single point of failure is studied so that protections may be put in place to prevent catastrophe.
The Soo Locks in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan is one such example of a single point of failure in a transportation system. It is the only way that ships can travel between St. Mary’s River and Lake Superior to deliver important materials like grain and iron ore. Projections of a 6-month shutdown of the locks have been widely studied and found to have far-reaching and catastrophic effects on both the U.S. and global economies [1]. While this single point of failure has not yet suffered an unplanned stoppage, other locations recently have, all resulting in major economic impacts. The 2021 Suez Canal shut down due to the grounded ship the Ever Given [2] and the destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge by a shipping vessel in 2024 [3] are examples of how broad the economic impacts of a single point of failure can be.
In this problem, your team is asked to identify and mathematically model a single point of failure in your local transportation network or in a transportation network that interests you. This vulnerability may be a bridge, a rail line, or waterway that is the lifeblood of your local economy, linking resources to consumers, or a major transportation hub.
Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail If your chosen vulnerability fails, quantify the economic impact of that failure for periods of one week, one month, and six months, assuming no alternative plan for replacing or avoiding the infrastructure exists. Economic impact can include impact on jobs, trade, gross domestic product, tourism dollars, tax revenue, and more. Feel free to focus on just one or a few of these factors, and use data to support your modeling when possible.
Detour Ahead Determine one alternative route or plan that does not include your chosen vulnerability. Use mathematical modeling to determine the extent to which the alternative can mitigate the economic impact of your vulnerability failing for the same time periods as in Q1.
An Ounce of Prevention is Worth a Pound of Cure For your chosen vulnerability, consider a preventative measure that could be taken now, which would reduce the chance of a failure or mitigate the impact of a failure. Create a mathematical model to determine if it is worth investing in this preventive measure now.
Your solution must justify why you are choosing the mathematical approaches that you use as well as explain fully what your models actually calculate.athematical model to evaluate the impact of at least one possible investment option on the team’s revenue and long-term value.
[1] U.S. Department of Homeland Security, The Perils of Efficiency: An Analysis of an Unexpected Closure of the Poe Lock and Its Impact,
[2] BBC, The cost of the Suez Canal blockage, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073
[3] NPR, The economic impact of the Baltimore bridge collapse, https://www.npr.org/2024/04/02/1242327964/the-economic-impact-of-the-baltimore-bridge-collapse
This problem was written by members of the Problem Development Committee: Dr. Jennifer Gorman, Lake Superior State University; Dr. Neil Nicholson, University of Notre Dame; Dr. Chris Musco, New York University.
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