In these sample papers from the 2023 M3 Challenge, students in the U.S. and the U.K. examine e-bike growth and impact. Each paper has a cover sheet that indicates what judges liked about the paper and what could have been improved.
“Our first model can predict the number of bikes sold in two and five years. It used the growth over past years, the cost decrease, and how much that will change the total sales…Our second model incorporates the equation that calculates the total amount of sales per year and relates to the average rise of gas prices. Our third model is the most unique compared to the other two, as it quantifies the impacts of e-bikes rather than basing the main claim on the equations provided below.”
“Our paper demonstrates that people feel safer and are more willing to cycle when their roads have Protective Bike Lanes, so it can be extrapolated that the implementation of these Protected Bike Lanes will increase e-bike usage, which in turn will reduce carbon emissions. Additionally, offering tax credits for the purchase of e-bikes would also incentivize purchasing e-bikes, as they would become more affordable. Overall, e-bikes offer a way to propel the U.S. into a future of low carbon emissions.”
“As e-bikes are a continuously growing market, the sales of e-bikes will not remain constant throughout the next five years. To model this growth, we developed exponential models for both the US and the UK. Using these models, we found that the US will purchase 1,922,281 e-bikes in 2025 and 3,969,391 e-bikes in 2028; the UK will purchase 2,555,919 e-bikes in 2025 and 5,271,485 e-bikes in 2028. These predictions were realistic as they represented around 3% to 8% of the total population. While these percentages were on the high side, they were still deemed reasonable since annual car sales hover around 3% of the total population.”
